{"id":1737,"date":"2013-10-02T10:53:00","date_gmt":"2013-10-02T08:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/?p=1737"},"modified":"2013-10-02T11:47:36","modified_gmt":"2013-10-02T09:47:36","slug":"dave-evans-a-jeho-vizie-buducnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/2013\/10\/dave-evans-a-jeho-vizie-buducnosti\/","title":{"rendered":"Dave Evans a jeho v\u00edzie bud\u00facnosti"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dave Evans, alias DaveTheFuturist, je hlavn\u00fd futurista Cisco IBSG Innovations Practice. Ned\u00e1vno n\u00e1m prostredn\u00edctvom telekonferencie odhalil svoju v\u00edziu najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00edch technologick\u00fdch pokrokov bud\u00facnosti. My v\u00e1m teraz pon\u00fakame v skratke preh\u013ead t\u00fdch najzauj\u00edmavej\u0161\u00edch v\u00edzi\u00ed bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti. Vedeli ste napr\u00edklad, \u017ee je dnes na internet pripojen\u00fdch u\u017e viac zariaden\u00ed ako \u017eije na zemi \u013eud\u00ed?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dave-Evans.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" alt=\"Dave Evans\" src=\"http:\/\/slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-content\/uploads\/Dave-Evans.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Dnes vieme len 5 percent toho, \u010do budeme vedie\u0165 o 50 rokov. In\u00fdmi slovami a\u017e 95 percent na\u0161ich poznatkov v tom \u010dase bude objaven\u00fdch za nasleduj\u00facich 50 rokov.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Na svete je u\u017e to\u013eko procesorov, \u017ee na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho \u010dloveka pripad\u00e1 pribli\u017ene jedna miliarda tranzistorov. Cena ka\u017ed\u00e9ho je tak jedna desa\u0165mili\u00f3ntina centu (0.0000001 USD).<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2020 bude na internet napojen\u00fdch viac ako 50 mili\u00e1rd zariaden\u00ed, \u010do je takmer desa\u0165n\u00e1sobne viac, ako dnes \u017eije \u013eud\u00ed na zemi. Predpoklad\u00e1 sa, \u017ee v tom \u010dase na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho \u010dloveka pripadne zhruba 7 zariaden\u00ed na internete. V\u010faka IPv6 budeme ma\u0165 k dispoz\u00edcii dostatok adries pre ka\u017ed\u00fa hviezdu v doteraz zn\u00e1mom vesm\u00edre,\u00a0t. j. 4,8 trili\u00f3na adries.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>V nasleduj\u00facich 10 rokoch sa prenosov\u00e1 r\u00fdchlos\u0165 dom\u00e1cich siet\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161i 20-n\u00e1sobne. V\u00fdvoj internetu umo\u017en\u00ed okam\u017eit\u00fa komunik\u00e1ciu bez oh\u013eadu na vzdialenos\u0165.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2013 dosiahne objem prev\u00e1dzky v bezdr\u00f4tov\u00fdch sie\u0165ach 400 PB mesa\u010dne. V dne\u0161nej dobe je prev\u00e1dzka celej glob\u00e1lnej siete na \u00farovni 9 exabytov (1 EB = 1018 bytov) mesa\u010dne.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2020 bude \u00falo\u017en\u00e1 kapacita 11 petabytov (1 PB = 1015 bytov alebo 1 mili\u00f3nov GB) dostupn\u00e1 u\u017e za cca 100 USD. Tento objem d\u00e1t predstavuje viac ako 600 rokov nepretr\u017eit\u00e9ho video z\u00e1znamu v DVD kvalite.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>V porovnan\u00ed napr. s rokom 2003 o\u010dak\u00e1vame v roku 2015 a\u017e 540 000 n\u00e1sobn\u00fd n\u00e1rast objemu digit\u00e1lnych d\u00e1t. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu z toho (zhruba 90 %) bude tvori\u0165 video. V ka\u017edom z nasleduj\u00facich dvoch rokov sa celosvetov\u00e9 d\u00e1ta zv\u00fd\u0161ia 6-n\u00e1sobne. Obchodn\u00e9 d\u00e1ta narast\u00fa 50-n\u00e1sobne. Kapacitu d\u00e1t pomaly za\u010dneme r\u00e1ta\u0165 v zetabajtoch.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2015 bude Google pozna\u0165 pribli\u017ene 775 mili\u00e1rd str\u00e1n obsahu.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2015 ro\u010dne vytvor\u00edme objem d\u00e1t ekvivalentn\u00fd 92,5-mili\u00f3n n\u00e1sobku obsahu Kongresovej kni\u017enice USA.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2020 bude ma\u0165 ka\u017ed\u00fd \u010dlovek ulo\u017een\u00fdch v priemere 130 TB (terabytov) osobn\u00fdch d\u00e1t. Dnes je to pribli\u017ene 128 GB.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2015 s\u0165ahovanie filmov a tzv. P2P siete exploduj\u00fa na \u00farove\u0148 objemu d\u00e1t 100 EB, \u010do predstavuje ekvivalent 5-mili\u00f3n n\u00e1sobku obsahu Kongresovej kni\u017enice USA.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2015 bude preva\u017en\u00e1 v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina telefon\u00e1tov vo forme video hovorov, \u010d\u00edm bud\u00fa generova\u0165 prev\u00e1dzku na \u00farovni 400 EB \u2013 t. j. 20-mili\u00f3n n\u00e1sobok obsahu Kongresovej kni\u017enice USA.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2015 narastie prev\u00e1dzka generovan\u00e1 telefonick\u00fdmi hovormi, webom, e-mailami, fotografiami a hudbou na \u00farove\u0148 50 EB.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do dvoch rokov sa inform\u00e1cie na internete bud\u00fa zdvojn\u00e1sobova\u0165 ka\u017ed\u00fdch 11 hod\u00edn.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>V roku 2020 by mala by\u0165 a\u017e tretina v\u0161etk\u00fdch d\u00e1t dostupn\u00e1 prostredn\u00edctvom Cloud rie\u0161en\u00ed. U\u017e o p\u00e1r rokov by malo by\u0165 jedno ak\u00e9 zariadenie pou\u017e\u00edvate, preto\u017ee d\u00e1ta bud\u00fa vz\u00e1jomne kompatibiln\u00e9 nez\u00e1visle na hardv\u00e9ri &#8211; podobne ako ke\u010f si dnes pozriete fotku v po\u010d\u00edta\u010di, v mobile, na telev\u00edzore&#8230; Rovnako \u201ekompatibiln\u00e9\u201c by mali by\u0165 \u00faplne v\u0161etky typy d\u00e1t.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Prv\u00fd komer\u010dn\u00fd kvantov\u00fd po\u010d\u00edta\u010d bude dostupn\u00fd v polovici roku 2020.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2020 bude ma\u0165 osobn\u00fd po\u010d\u00edta\u010d v hodnote 1 000 USD hrub\u00fa v\u00fdpo\u010dtov\u00fa kapacitu na \u00farovni \u013eudsk\u00e9ho mozgu.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2030 bud\u00fa na vyrovnanie sa po\u010d\u00edta\u010du v hodnote 1 000 USD potrebn\u00e9 mozgy obyvate\u013eov celej osady.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2050 (pri predpoklade celosvetovej popul\u00e1cie na \u00farovni 9 mili\u00e1rd) sa v\u00fdpo\u010dtov\u00e1 kapacita v hodnote 1 000 USD vyrovn\u00e1 kapacite v\u0161etk\u00fdch \u013eudsk\u00fdch mozgov na Zemi.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2020 bude univerz\u00e1lne prekladanie jazykov samozrejmos\u0165ou v ka\u017edom zariaden\u00ed.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>V nasleduj\u00facich 5 rokoch sa ak\u00e1ko\u013evek plocha stane displejom. Energetick\u00fa kr\u00edzu by sme mohli vyrie\u0161i\u0165 pomocou sol\u00e1rnej energie. V bud\u00facnosti by vraj bolo mo\u017en\u00e9 len pomocou nieko\u013ek\u00fdch elektr\u00e1rn\u00ed pokry\u0165 energetick\u00e9 n\u00e1roky cel\u00e9ho sveta, samozrejme za predpokladu, \u017ee sa nau\u010d\u00edme efekt\u00edvnej\u0161ie vyu\u017e\u00edva\u0165 energiu zo slnka.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>V priebehu p\u00e1r rokov sa stan\u00fa 3D tla\u010diarne be\u017en\u00fdm doplnkom po\u010d\u00edta\u010dov a preto si mnoh\u00e9 veci budeme namiesto nakupovania sami vyr\u00e1ba\u0165 (tla\u010di\u0165). Do roku 2025 bude mo\u017en\u00e9 teleportovanie na \u00farovni \u010dast\u00edc.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Do roku 2030 bud\u00fa vyvinut\u00e9 prv\u00e9 mozgov\u00e9 implant\u00e1ty. Ke\u010f\u017ee sa o\u010dak\u00e1va, \u017ee robotika v tom \u010dase bude na \u00farovni dne\u0161n\u00fdch sci-fi filmov, budeme m\u00f4c\u0165 vytvori\u0165 umel\u00e9 samostatne mysliace bytosti so schopnos\u0165ami \u017eiv\u00fdch organizmov.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dave Evans, alias DaveTheFuturist, je hlavn\u00fd futurista Cisco IBSG Innovations Practice. Ned\u00e1vno n\u00e1m prostredn\u00edctvom telekonferencie odhalil svoju v\u00edziu najv\u00fdznamnej\u0161\u00edch technologick\u00fdch pokrokov bud\u00facnosti. My v\u00e1m teraz pon\u00fakame v skratke preh\u013ead t\u00fdch najzauj\u00edmavej\u0161\u00edch v\u00edzi\u00ed bl\u00edzkej bud\u00facnosti. Vedeli ste napr\u00edklad, \u017ee je dnes na internet pripojen\u00fdch u\u017e viac zariaden\u00ed ako \u017eije na zemi \u013eud\u00ed? Dnes vieme len 5 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":1738,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[43],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1737","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-technologie","eq-blocks"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1737"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1740,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1737\/revisions\/1740"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1738"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.slovaklinesmagazin.sk\/cms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}